News

Tariff Détente?

Posted on: May 22 2025

The US-China tariff truce is a tactical pause, not a final deal but for markets, but it’s a meaningful de-escalation. While the structural issues remain unresolved, the signal is clear: neither side wants to push trade tensions further. Slashing duties from 145% to 30% (US) and 125% to 10% (China) marks a dramatic de-escalation, likely…

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Human vs. System: Can Emotion-Free Trading Bots Really Deliver More Consistent Results?

Posted on: May 21 2025

Human vs. System Human vs. System: Can Emotion-Free Trading Bots Really Deliver More Consistent Results? Ask any seasoned trader what derails trades the fastest,...

Top 3 trade ideas for 19 May 2025

Posted on: May 20 2025

The overview is based on trade ideas provided by the Acuity Trading service. RoboForex analysts only select ideas from those available on the platform and do not develop them independently. Please note that trading in financial markets involves high risks, and the ideas presented do not constitute investment advice.

Trade ideas for AUDUSD, USDJPY, and EURUSD are available today. The ideas expire on 20 May 2025 at 8:00 AM (GTM +3).

AUDUSD trade idea

The AUDUSD currency pair continues to trade in a mixed and volatile manner. Price action suggests the formation of a local top, with the possibility of a short-term upward move, which is likely to remain limited. The nearest resistance level is at 0.6445. Selling on the upside remains the preferred strategy. Today’s AUDUSD trade idea suggests placing a pending Sell Stop order.

News sentiment for AUDUSD shows a slight dominance of positive expectations – 51% vs 49%. The risk-to-reward ratio is 1:4. Potential profit at the first take-profit target is 80 pips, and 95 pips at the second, with possible losses limited to 20 pips.

AUDUSD trade idea for 19 May 2025

Trading plan

Entry Point: 0.6445
Target 1: 0.6365
Target 2: 0.6350
Stop-Loss: 0.6465

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USDJPY trade idea

The USDJPY currency pair ended the previous session with minor changes. Selling pressure intensified during the Asian session. A price gap near 145.64 remains unfilled on the chart. Further upward movement is expected. Despite its corrective nature, the anticipated rally offers favourable conditions in terms of risk-to-reward ratio. Today’s USDJPY trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.

News sentiment for USDJPY shows balanced expectations – 50% vs 50%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:5. Potential profit at the first take-profit target is 211 pips, and 399 pips at the second, with possible losses capped at 75 pips.

USDJPY trade idea for 19 May 2025

Trading plan

Entry Point: 144.92
Target 1: 147.03
Target 2: 148.91
Stop-Loss: 144.22

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EURUSD trade idea

For the third consecutive session, the EURUSD pair has shown mixed price action with significant volatility in both directions. The nearest key resistance level is at 1.1225. Selling on price rallies remains the preferred strategy. Today’s EURUSD trade idea suggests placing a pending Sell Limit order.

News sentiment for EURUSD shows a slight dominance of negative expectations – 55% vs 45%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:8. Potential profit at the first take-profit target is 195 pips, and 403 pips at the second, while potential losses are limited to 50 pips.

EURUSD trade idea for 19 May 2025

Trading plan

Entry Point: 1.1225
Target 1: 1.1030
Target 2: 1.0822
Stop-Loss: 1.1275

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Stocks bounce back: Clear skies ahead or still stormy weather?

Posted on: May 16 2025

Key points:

Earnings momentum is turning positive, with analysts upgrading corporate profit forecasts after months of pessimism.
Investor sentiment and economic forecasts have improved significantly after easing trade tensions.
Risks remain elevated, with higher-than-normal tariffs, lofty valuations, and lingering uncertainty about the economic outlook.

This content is marketing material.

"Markets hate uncertainty—and nothing breeds uncertainty like a sudden trade war."

After weeks of turbulence triggered by Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs, global equities seem to have steadied their nerve. Stock markets are rebounding sharply, optimism is rising, and investor sentiment is finally improving. Yet, seasoned investors know better than to celebrate prematurely. The question remains: have the storm clouds truly cleared, or is this just the eye of a lingering storm?

A sudden recovery after months of turmoil

Early April saw investors scrambling as Trump's sudden tariff hikes triggered a sharp sell-off. Equity markets worldwide fell dramatically, briefly plunging the S&P 500 into bear market territory—down nearly 20%.

But almost as quickly as it fell, the market rebounded with striking resilience. Led by powerful recoveries from tech giants such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Advanced Micro Devices, the S&P 500 is now positive for the year and only about 4% below its all-time high. Investors seem to have concluded the worst is behind them, interpreting the turmoil as a temporary, event-driven shock rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.

Behind the brighter sentiment

This newfound optimism rests primarily on two pillars: easing geopolitical tensions and strong corporate earnings. The recent truce between the US and China, which has put a temporary pause on the very high tariff levels, along with negotiations for a new trade deal with the UK has provided crucial breathing space. This has markedly reduced recession fears, prompting economists to upgrade their growth forecasts and reduce their estimated likelihood of a recession this year.

Meanwhile, companies have defied the gloomy predictions of earlier months. In the recent earnings season, an impressive 77% of S&P 500 companies surpassed expectations, pushing analysts to upgrade their forecasts for the first time in half a year. This suggests corporate America may be far better equipped to handle tariffs and economic uncertainty than markets had assumed.

As a result, a key Citigroup indicator measuring analysts’ earnings revisions recently turned positive—clear evidence that corporate fundamentals might be on a healthier footing than previously feared.

The power of positive earnings revisions

Positive revisions don't just signal improved corporate health; they also lift investor sentiment and encourage a return to risk-taking. Indeed, stocks tend to respond positively as analysts raise their forecasts. The stronger-than-expected earnings results are already pushing forecasts upwards, reinforcing the positive feedback loop of improving investor confidence.

Crucially, companies leading this recovery share a common trait: pricing power. Firms able to maintain profit margins despite higher tariffs have weathered the storm best. Investors should therefore prioritise businesses with robust brands and unique products, well-equipped to pass on higher costs without severely impacting sales or profitability.

Cautious optimism required

But this brighter outlook isn’t risk-free. Tariffs, while now lower than initially feared, remain significantly elevated compared to pre-crisis levels. Companies sensitive to global trade remain cautious, with some pausing or withdrawing earnings guidance entirely. Sectors such as autos, durables, and industrials still face considerable uncertainty.

Furthermore, after this strong rally, market valuations—particularly in the US—have soared back to historically high levels. While optimism is justified, stocks have already priced in a relatively rosy economic scenario. This leaves limited room for error: if economic data disappoints, markets could swiftly retrace recent gains.

Where to from here? Opportunities and pitfalls

Looking ahead, investors must remain vigilant. Continued positive earnings revisions would validate recent market optimism, while central banks’ actions—particularly the Federal Reserve’s approach to rate cuts amid persistent tariff-driven inflation—will be closely watched.

Geographic diversification continues to offer valuable protection. European equities, notably Germany and Italy, have performed strongly and still trade at significant discounts to their US counterparts. Investing in regions less sensitive to US tariffs can provide crucial balance.

Moreover, while the initial hype around AI has cooled slightly, tech firms tied to structural AI growth, such as Nvidia, remain fundamentally strong. Their recent resilience demonstrates ongoing secular growth potential, particularly attractive amid easing global trade tensions.

Clear skies or still stormy weather?

Markets have undeniably enjoyed a welcome rally following the recent easing of tariff risks. Yet investors must acknowledge that significant uncertainties still loom. Higher tariffs, rich valuations, and ongoing geopolitical risks mean that markets remain vulnerable to sudden reversals.

The recent market moves underscore an essential investing truth: resilience pays off. Investors who stuck to their long-term strategies have been rewarded. If you had sold out when things looked darkest, you would have missed a 20% upside. We may not be completely out of the woods yet, but the wisdom of staying the course is proven time and time again.

For investors, this translates to careful optimism. It might be time to cautiously increase exposure to high-quality businesses with proven pricing power and resilient earnings. But it's also essential to maintain sufficient diversification and liquidity, remaining prepared for potential volatility ahead.

After all, experienced investors understand one truth clearly: even if the clouds seem to be clearing, you should always keep your umbrella close at hand.

Jacob FalkencroneGlobal Head of Investment StrategySaxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Corporate Earnings Earnings per share Price to earnings ratio Price earnings ratio Earnings beat Earnings miss

Crude stays range-bound despite latest tariff-truce bounce

Posted on: May 15 2025

This content is marketing material

Key points:

Crude oil’s four-day bounce shows signs of maturing after WTI and Brent both approached key resistance
The latest rally was triggered by a 90-day truce in the US–China trade war, reducing the risk to global demand
Further upside, especially through key resistance at USD 65 in WTI and near USD 69 in Brent, seems limited for now
Soybean oil and sugar correlate to fossil fuel prices through an increased focus on biofuels

Crude oil’s four-day bounce shows signs of maturing after WTI and Brent both approached key resistance, and levels that traders at this point are unwilling to trade through, given an underlying supply–demand imbalance which has been weighing on prices in recent months. This has been driven by a combination of trade war-related demand fears, and not least a rapid unwinding of the 2.2 million b/d in OPEC+ production cuts implemented between 2022 and August 2023—a strategy that has now been abandoned amid demand fears making it difficult to support the price, and widespread quota violations. Recent compliance data suggest cumulative overproduction of around 800,000 b/d, with Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE cited as the main culprits.

The latest rally was triggered by a 90-day truce in the US–China trade war, reducing the risk of a full-blown US recession later this year, while also slowing an economic slide in China—both leading to a more stable outlook for demand in the world’s two biggest consumers of fossil fuels. However, unless the US administration manages to successfully tighten sanctions against Iran—and potentially also Russia, if the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine this week in Ankara fail to deliver a diplomatic breakthrough—the prospect for higher prices at this stage seems limited.

With that in mind, the potential for further upside, especially through key resistance at USD 65 in WTI and near USD 69 in Brent, seems limited, with both instead mean-reverting back to the centre of their respective ten-dollar ranges.

Brent Crude Oil, first month cont. - Source: Saxo

Fuel prices and their impact on food commodities

In the US and globally, demand for biodiesel and sugar-based ethanol continues to grow, inadvertently giving these food commodities an additional layer of demand. Soybean oil is a major feedstock for renewable diesel, especially in the US, and as a result, the CBOT-traded soybean oil benchmark contract is up 24% this year amid a relatively tight global market for vegetable oils, which includes sunflower oil (Ukraine), palm oil (Malaysia and Indonesia), and rapeseed oil (Canada, the EU, and China). With strong demand for soybean oil, processors have been incentivised to crush more soybeans, which inadvertently has led to an oversupply of soymeal, driving down prices amid lower demand for animal feed and sluggish demand from China.

Meanwhile, earlier this week the US Department of Agriculture reported that domestic supplies of soybeans for the 2025–26 marketing year will be even tighter than analysts expected. That could mean fewer supplies of beans to crush into oil, further underpinning prices at a time when Republican lawmakers are working on extending a clean fuel production tax credit by four years from 2027.

Sugar is another commodity which in recent years have shown increased correlation with direction of traditional fossil fuels, especially gasoline. This week, as the mentioned crude oil rally unfolded, the raw sugar futures contract surged 3.3% in New York, the most in a month, on speculation higher fuel costs would prompt millers in top exporters India and Brazil to produce more bioethanol instead of the sweetener. While the US is the world's top producer of ethanol, but based mainly on corn, Brazil is the biggest producer from sugarcane with legislation mandating a minimum ethanol content in gasoline of 27%, with the potential for it to rise to 35%.

Performance across the three main CBOT soy futures

Brent Crude Oil: Five-year historical charts provided for compliance purposes. Source: Saxo

Related articles/content
13 May 2025: Gold holds steady as tariff truce sparks silver rebound 12 May 2025: COT Report: Broad risk reduction seen ahead of easing trade tensions 9 May 2025: Commodities weekly Sentiment improves as trade tensions cool before talks 8 May 2025: Copper market navigates tariff uncertainty amid tight global supply 7 May 2025: Agriculture markets diverge as trade war weather and speculators reshape landscape 6 May 2025: Crude climbs as market digests OPEC hike and shale slowdown risks 6 May 2025: Gold rises as Chinese demand rebounds post-holiday 5 May 2025: COT Report: Dollar-selling persists; Crude length trimmed ahead of OPEC output hike 1 May 2025: Gold corrects sharply from record highs as Chinese demand pauses 29 April 2025: Copper navigates energy transition supply shocks and market turmoil 28 April 2025: COT Report: Continued gold selling; USD weakness drives record JPY long 25 April 2025: Commodities weekly Energy slump overshadows strength in gold and agriculture 23 April 2025: Blowout top leaves Gold in consolidation mode 22 April 2025: Commodities return Why allocation matters 16 April 2025: Whats next as gold hits our USD 3300 target 15 April 2025: COT Reports show hedge funds racing to cash post-Liberation Day 11 April 2025: Commodities weekly As chaos reigns whats next for markets 10 April 2025: YouTube Interview: Gold, silver, copper, oil - prices, supply, demand in 2025 Podcasts that include commodities focus: 12 May 2025: As good as it gets on the trade news front 6 May 2025: Bears hang in at key levels as Palantir rides the retail whirlwind 23 April 2025: Trump going soft on tariffs versus the direction of travel. 11 April 2025: US and China are slipping into an economic war 4 April 2025: Markets melts down as recession risks go global 1 April 2025: Bracing for Liberation Day

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Globalization, Interrupted

Posted on: May 14 2025

Starting your day with Colombian coffee brewed in a German-designed machine, while checking emails on a smartphone assembled in China with parts from South Korea and the US, is something many of us do without thinking. But this level of global connection is starting to face real challenges. The Push Toward Regional Blocs Since World…

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Alphabet’s report shifts the outlook – the share price may test resistance at 200 USD

Posted on: May 10 2025

Strong results from Alphabet for Q1 2025 and a 70 billion USD share buyback could reinforce the bullish case for GOOG stock.

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG)’s report for Q1 2025 significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations. Revenue rose 12% year-on-year to 90.23 billion USD, while net profit increased by 46% to 34.54 billion USD. The main growth drivers were the Google Cloud division, which saw a 28% rise in revenue, and the successful monetisation of AI tools like Gemini 2.5. In addition, the company announced a 70 billion USD share buyback and raised its dividend. Alphabet’s shares surged following the report’s release. This market reaction reflects optimism surrounding the rapid commercialisation of AI, improved profitability in the cloud business, and a shareholder-friendly policy.

This article examines Alphabet Inc., outlines its key revenue streams, and reviews its 2024 performance. It also offers a technical analysis of GOOG stock, serving as the basis for the Alphabet stock forecast for 2025.

About Alphabet Inc.

Alphabet Inc. was established on 2 October 2015 through a restructuring of Google, which had been founded by Lawrence Page and Sergey Brin in 1998. Google was originally a search engine but gradually evolved into a diversified technology company, covering advertising, cloud services, mobile platforms, and other areas.

By 2015, Google’s scope and diversification had made its management increasingly complex. As a result, a holding structure – Alphabet Inc. – was set up, with Google becoming one of its divisions focusing on core businesses (Search, YouTube, and Android). At the same time, innovative projects, such as Waymo and Verily, were spun off into separate companies under Alphabet’s management.

Since the restructuring, Alphabet has replaced Google as the listed public company on the stock exchange, retaining its existing tickers (GOOGL and GOOG). Larry Page became Alphabet’s CEO, Sergey Brin its President, and Pichai Sundararajan was appointed CEO of Google.

Alphabet is listed on the stock exchange under two tickers, GOOGL and GOOG:

GOOGL (Class A) – voting shares. Holders of these shares are entitled to vote at shareholder meetings (1 share = 1 vote)
GOOG (Class C) – non-voting shares. These shares provide the same economic rights (dividends, capital appreciation) but do not allow holders to participate in the company’s management.

Image displaying the name of one of Alphabet Inc.’s major subsidiaries

Alphabet Inc.’s main revenue streams

Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google and other subsidiaries, generates revenue from several business segments. The primary sources of revenue are outlined below:

Google services: the largest source of income, driven primarily by advertising. This includes:
- Google Search and others: revenue from advertisements placed on Google Search, Gmail, Google Maps, and other Google-owned services
- YouTube ads: revenue from banner ads, skippable and non-skippable video ads, and overlay ads on YouTube
- Subscriptions, platforms, and devices: revenue from subscription services such as YouTube Premium, YouTube TV, Google One, and NFL Sunday Ticket. This category also includes app sales, in-game purchases via the Google Play Store, and sales of hardware such as Pixel phones, Nest and Chromecast devices

Google Cloud: revenue from cloud computing services, including infrastructure, platform solutions, and apps such as Google Workspace and Gemini for Cloud. Google Cloud serves corporate clients and is growing rapidly, although it still lags behind competitors such as AWS and Microsoft Azure

Other Bets: includes Alphabet’s ambitious ventures, such as Waymo (autonomous driving), Verily (healthcare), and GFiber (internet services), with most revenue coming from the latter two. Although this segment contributes less to overall revenue, it focuses on long-term innovation and often operates at a loss
Alphabet operations: this includes small currency-related hedging revenue and other corporate activities. This is not the primary segment but includes other income unrelated to the core segments

Advertising remains the basis for Alphabet’s revenue, with Google services, notably Search and YouTube, taking the lead. Google Cloud is a growing revenue stream, reflecting Alphabet’s commitment to developing solutions for companies, while other projects are speculative investments with a limited but increasing impact on revenues.

Alphabet Inc.’s financial position

Alphabet Inc. is in a strong financial position, reflecting both stability and strategic momentum. The company continues to deliver steady revenue growth, driven primarily by its advertising operations, particularly via Google Search and YouTube.

Alphabet closed 2024 with a revenue of 350 billion USD, a 14% increase year-on-year. Net income rose by 28% to 100 billion USD.

Google Services, which includes Search, YouTube, and other platforms, generated 84.1 billion USD in revenue in 2024, up 10% from 2023. The Google Cloud segment also expanded, reaching 12 billion USD, which is also a 10% increase from the previous year.

Alphabet plans to invest around 75 billion USD in 2025, significantly higher than the 52 billion USD in 2024. The primary objective is to expand its AI infrastructure and capabilities. CEO Sundar Pichai emphasised the importance of AI across all the company’s products.

Alphabet Inc. financial results for Q1 2025

On 24 April, Alphabet published its report for Q1 2025, which ended on 31 March. The key figures are presented below, compared to the same period in 2024:

Revenue: 90.2 billion USD (+12%)
Net income: 34.5 billion USD (+46%)
Earnings per share: 2.81 USD (+49%)
Costs and expenses: 59.6 billion USD (+8%)
Operating income: 30.6 billion USD (+20%)
Operating margin: 34% (+200 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

Google Services: 77.3 billion USD (+10%)
Google advertising: 66.9 billion USD (+8%)
- Google Search & other: 50.7 billion USD (+10%)
- YouTube ads: 8.9 billion USD (+10%)
- Google Network: 7.3 billion USD (–2%)
- Google subscriptions, platforms, and devices: 10.4 billion USD (+19%)

Google Cloud: 12.3 billion USD (+28%)

Other Bets: 0.4 billion USD (–10%)

Alphabet’s Q1 2025 report demonstrates resilient growth, making the company’s shares attractive to investors. Revenue rose by 12% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in search, YouTube, and Google Cloud, while net income increased by 46%.

The search segment remains the primary source of revenue, with the rollout of AI Overviews reaching 1.5 billion monthly users, boosting engagement without undermining monetisation. YouTube continues to lead in the streaming segment, while the subscriber base has grown to 270 million (across YouTube and Google One), contributing to a steady stream of high-margin revenue. Google Cloud posted 28% revenue growth and a margin of 17.8%, reinforcing the company’s strategic focus on AI infrastructure. The planned acquisition of Wiz for 32 billion USD, expected to close in 2026, will strengthen Alphabet’s cloud security position and enhance its competitiveness in the market.

Alphabet announced a 70 billion USD share buyback and a 5% increase in quarterly dividends, now at 0.21 USD per share, reflecting confidence in its outlook.

Although the company did not provide specific guidance for Q2 2025, the consensus forecast expects revenue of 93.6 billion USD and earnings per share of 2.14 USD, pointing to continued stable growth.

CFO Anat Ashkenazi noted the risks associated with tariffs, particularly for the advertising business in the Asia-Pacific region, but confirmed that Q1 2025 capital expenditures (17.2 billion USD) are in line with the full-year plan. The company’s ongoing focus on innovation in search, expansion of its cloud business, and development of autonomous transport through Waymo (which now covers over 500 square miles) provides multiple growth drivers.

Alphabet’s strong quarterly performance highlights its ability to adapt and grow despite intense competition. Its leadership in AI, expansion of the cloud segment, share buyback program, and dividends make the company’s stock attractive to investors focused on future-facing technologies.

Expert forecasts for Alphabet Inc. stock

Barchart: 41 out of 53 analysts rated Alphabet stock as a Strong Buy, three as a Moderate Buy, and nine as a Hold. The highest target price is 240 USD, and the lowest is 160 USD
MarketBeat: 17 out of 25 experts gave the stock a Buy rating, six recommended Hold, and two advised Sell. The maximum target price is 235 USD, while the lowest is 171 USD
TipRanks: 16 out of 17 analysts rated the stock as Buy, with one recommending Hold. The highest target price is 234 USD, and the lowest is 173 USD
Stock Analysis: 17 out of 43 experts rated the shares as a Strong Buy, 16 as Buy, and 10 as Hold. The highest target price is 230 USD, and the lowest is 159 USD

Expert forecasts for Alphabet Inc. stock for 2025

Alphabet Inc. stock price forecast for 2025

On the weekly timeframe, Alphabet shares are trading within an upward channel. In February 2025, the price bounced off the upper boundary of the channel and turned downwards, indicating a correction that may end upon reaching the trendline. However, the release of strong Q1 2025 financial results and the positive investor reaction could drive GOOG shares higher from current levels. In this case, the correction may end prematurely without reaching the lower trendline. Based on Alphabet Inc.’s recent performance, the potential scenarios for the stock’s movement in 2025 are as follows:

The base-case forecast for Alphabet shares anticipates a rise to the resistance level at 188 USD. A breakout above this level would trigger further growth, potentially pushing the GOOG share price up to 200 USD.

The alternative forecast for Alphabet stock envisions a renewed test of support at 150 USD, followed by a breakout and a decline towards the trendline around 125 USD. A rebound from the trendline would signal the end of the correction and the beginning of a new upward wave in Alphabet’s share price.

Alphabet Inc. stock analysis and forecast for 2025

Dollar Strengthens Following Fed Verdict

Posted on: May 09 2025

The USD/JPY and USD/CAD currency pairs are showing moderate gains following yesterday’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve. As expected, the American central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged. However, the tone of the accompanying statement and Jerome Powell’s comments were perceived by

Disney shines bright as streaming and parks outperform expectations

Posted on: May 08 2025

Key points:

Streaming strength: Disney+ subscriber growth and premium pricing validate Disney’s streaming strategy.
US parks resilience: Robust performance from domestic parks highlights continued consumer appetite despite economic uncertainty.
Cautious optimism: While confident, Disney remains vigilant on macroeconomic risks like tariffs and international headwinds.

This content is marketing material.

Investors found a bit of pixie dust sprinkled on their portfolios this morning, as Disney’s quarterly results blew past expectations, powered by robust theme parks and a surprise surge in streaming subscribers. Shares surged nearly 7% pre-market, suggesting the entertainment giant has rediscovered its magic touch.

Earnings deliver a blockbuster beat

The entertainment giant smashed market expectations:

Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of USD 1.45, comfortably ahead of analyst estimates of USD 1.20
Revenues rose a robust 7% year-over-year to USD 23.62 billion, surpassing forecasts of USD 23.14 billion.

Most eye-catching was Disney’s dramatic bottom-line turnaround: from a modest loss last year to a striking USD 3.28 billion net profit (USD 1.81 per share). Behind this reversal stood impressive subscriber growth in streaming and booming theme park revenues—clear signs of operational strength despite broader macroeconomic caution.

Streaming surprise and parks prowess

Disney+ emerged as the quarter’s standout performer. Contrary to earlier guidance predicting subscriber contraction, Disney gained 1.4 million subscribers to its flagship service, reaching 126 million globally—comfortably surpassing analyst expectations. Pricing power proved key, demonstrating that audiences remain willing to pay premium prices for quality content such as Moana 2 and Mufasa: The Lion King.

Disney’s experiences segment—encompassing parks, resorts, and cruises—also impressed. Revenue rose 6% to USD 8.89 billion, bolstered by strong domestic park attendance and consumer willingness to spend. The debut of the Disney Treasure cruise ship significantly boosted performance, highlighting resilient demand for premium leisure experiences. However, international parks, particularly in Shanghai and Hong Kong, felt headwinds from lower attendance and geopolitical tensions, indicating ongoing vulnerabilities abroad.

Another corner of the Disney kingdom that failed to sparkle was traditional TV, where revenues continued their decline—dropping 13% to USD 2.42 billion. This underscores Disney’s strategic urgency in fully pivoting toward streaming and direct-to-consumer models.

Guidance: stronger outlook, tempered by caution

Disney’s upbeat results came with an equally bullish outlook. The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to USD 5.75, forecasting an impressive 16% annual growth—double the earlier expectations of high single digits.

CEO Bob Iger emphasised robust movie releases, ambitious park expansions, and a highly anticipated ESPN streaming service launching later this year. These strategic bets underline Disney’s commitment to aggressive investments, even amidst economic caution, solidifying its market leadership.

Still, Iger acknowledged the broader economic uncertainties: "We’re confident but cautious, ambitious yet realistic. We’re closely monitoring global trade tensions and FX volatility, recognising their potential impact."

Headwinds and challenges

Disney faces several headwinds despite its strong performance, particularly internationally. Persistent US-China trade tensions and tariffs threaten to impact attendance at parks and profitability of its studio business. Foreign exchange volatility, especially across European and Asian markets, adds another layer of uncertainty. Additionally, increased competition from Universal’s new Epic Universe theme park opening soon in Orlando could pressure domestic park attendance and margins, while already reduced visitor numbers in Asia highlight ongoing sensitivity to global economic slowdowns. Investors should remain vigilant, as these factors could dampen Disney’s otherwise robust growth outlook.

What investors should watch next

Subscriber trajectory: Monitor subscriber retention and churn on Disney+, particularly as prices rise further.
Linear TV strategy: Expect more decisive strategic shifts and cost management in legacy TV businesses as Disney accelerates its pivot towards streaming.
International parks recovery: Keep an eye on attendance trends in Shanghai and Hong Kong parks for indications of global economic sentiment.
ESPN streaming launch: Evaluate market reception to ESPN’s new platform, as it could reshape the landscape for sports streaming.
Macro sensitivity: Keep vigilant of trade policies and FX impacts, notably on international revenue streams.

Looking ahead: Disney's next act

Disney’s quarter was impressive not just for its strong numbers, but for what it symbolises: the company’s ability to deliver exceptional performance even amid a stormy economic backdrop. For investors, Disney’s renewed confidence is encouraging. Yet, as every Disney enthusiast knows, the magic is truly in the details—and right now, the details look very promising indeed.

In Bob Iger’s own words, “We’re confident but cautious, ambitious yet realistic—and absolutely committed to creating value for our investors.”

Disney might just be proving it can weather economic turbulence and emerge stronger than ever—a magical prospect for investors hoping the fairy tale continues.

Jacob FalkencroneGlobal Head of Investment StrategySaxo Bank

Topics: Equities Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Corporate Earnings Earnings per share Price to earnings ratio Price earnings ratio Earnings beat Earnings miss The Walt Disney Company

GBP/USD catches some lift on hopes for a US-UK trade deal

Posted on: May 07 2025

GBP/USD rose on Tuesday, climbing four-tenths of one percent on the day and testing the 1.3400 handle on headlines of a possible US-UK trade deal that would see the UK avoid the brunt of trade tariffs being actively pursued by the Trump administration.