JPMorgan and Goldman estimate jobless claims fell to ~217k despite data gaps from the shutdown.
Both layoffs and hiring remain subdued, keeping the labour market stable but stagnant.
Small-business hiring continues to slow, according to Bank of America data.
Continuing claims are steady near 1.9 m, consistent with a 4.3% jobless rate.
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Info via Reuters reporting.
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs estimate that U.S. weekly jobless claims declined to 217,000 in the week ending October 11, down from 235,000 a week earlier, suggesting that layoffs remain limited even as hiring slows.
The estimates were compiled using partial state data because the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its third week, has halted official data releases. Economists used historical seasonal adjustments to approximate missing figures from several states, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Tennessee.
Goldman said its model produced a range between 211,000 and 225,000, depending on assumptions for the unavailable states, while JPMorgan’s Abiel Reinhart noted that the figures “look quite decent,” indicating continued labour-market stability.
Economists describe the current backdrop as a “no-hire, no-fire” environment: job losses are minimal, but new hiring is also limited. A Bank of America Institute survey found that small-business hiring activity has slowed, with fewer new business applications listing planned wages — a sign of weakening job creation.
Continuing claims, which track people still receiving unemployment benefits, were estimated at roughly 1.9 million, little changed from the previous week. The unemployment rate, last reported at 4.3%, remains near a four-year high.
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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.