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US 500 forecast: prices attempt to break above resistance and set a new all-time high

Posted on: Sep 10 2025

The US 500 continues to rise but has not yet managed to overcome the resistance level. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls for August came in at 22 thousand
  • Market impact: for the US equity market, this has a rather positive effect in the medium term

US 500 fundamental analysis

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls data for August 2025 showed 22 thousand new jobs, well below the forecast of 75 thousand and significantly weaker than the previous 79 thousand. This result signals a slowdown in labour market dynamics, which has multiple implications for the US stock market.

From a macroeconomic perspective, such a weak reading indicates declining demand from employers and potential cooling of the economy. For the US 500, this can act as a double-edged factor. On the one hand, weakness in employment may increase concerns about the sustainability of economic growth. On the other hand, a softer labour market could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a looser monetary policy than previously anticipated.

US Nonfarm Payrolls: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls

US 500 technical analysis

After reaching an all-time high, the US 500 continues its upward momentum and consolidates within an uptrend. The current support level is at 6,435.0, while the nearest resistance level is at 6,515.0. The most likely scenario remains further growth, with a target near 6,605.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout below the 6,435.0 support level could push the index down to 6,210.0
  • Optimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout above the 6,515.0 resistance level could boost the index to 6,605.0
US 500 technical analysis for 9 September 2025

Summary

Market reaction to the data will depend on prevailing investor sentiment. If the focus remains on risks of an economic slowdown, the US 500 may correct lower. However, if attention shifts to prospects of a looser Federal Reserve policy, technology and communication stocks are likely to benefit, helping to maintain the index’s current uptrend. From a technical perspective, the US 500 is expected to continue its upward trajectory towards 6,605.0.

Open Account

Bigger Fed cut weighed. Oracle the next company to set the tone in AI.

Posted on: Sep 09 2025

Precious metals, rates, currencies and AI stocks all on the move as a new week gets under way.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today's links

The Munich Auto Show 2025 is this week, and while China’s EVs are setting the standard in many cases, it is still interesting to see how global carmakers are responding. The next generation of cars is looking more compelling than ever, both from design and range perspective. Here is a preview with some slick video, although people like this guy will be interesting to follow as the show unfolds this week.

Matt Stoller, a great voice against increasingly monopoly power and a true democrat with a small “d” has penned a good one over at his BIG substack on the increasingly fragile US economy that is over-reliant on stock market gains to drive the economy forward, which at the same time drives inequality. As mentioned, this reminds me of Peter Turchin’s “wealth pump” notion in the “cliodynamics” driven framework for why the US is socio-economically destabilizing as outlined in his End Times book.

We all know that Trump has low approval ratings, but there are shades of grey within the ratings that are as important, as far more Americans now strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance, while fewer voice strong approval

Here’s another guest on the Thoughtful Money podcast outlining the factors pointing to the risk of a further slowdown in the US economy and a strong outlook for commodities with investor David Hay.

And Jack Farley host a couple of podcasts recently that point to big questions in US credit markets - something you can hear a lot about anecdotally these days but where systematic, publicly available data is non-existent. One with a regulator and another with a consultancy service that analyzes banks on behalf of clients.

Chart of the Day - Oracle (ORCL)

Oracle has suffered a downdraft of late, one that has been a bit more extended and deeper than the correction in Nvidia and others. The company reports its earnings tomorrow after the US market close. Every earnings report for companies with a significant AI angle drives significant volatility risk, and that is especially so for Oracle on its new status as hyperscaler extraordinaire relative to its prior business model, having transitioned from a capex rate of USD 1.6 to 2.1 billion annually during its humdrum no-growth status back in 2019-2021 to a blistering pace of over USD 21 billion in the reporting year to May 2025, sending its cash flow into negative territory even as its shares have rocketed several hundred percent higher over the last five years. The company also now carries USD 100 billion (!) in long term debt versus USD 52 billion six years ago. We preview what the market will be looking for from Oracle’s earnings report on today’s podcast - but we can certainly say that the market is looking for a lot.

Source: Saxo

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].
This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex
Market complacent ahead of US jobs data. Is the US set to revalue its gold holdings?

Posted on: Sep 06 2025

Market needs to be careful: low rates aren't great if they are due to a weakening economy.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Macro Calendar for the week ahead

As promised on today's pod, please see highlights of the macro calendar event risks for the week ahead: 

Today’s links

China’s mercantilist model - it has run out of road. This great piece looks at how China’s mercantilist model has not only helped drive the increasingly adversarial relationship with the US, but is possibly also untenable for many emerging markets as well Can China ever rebalance its economy, or is the CCP DNA incapable of this shift?

On the why of the US revaluing its gold reserves A Kitco article runs through some of the rationale for the US to revalue its gold holdings from USD 42 per ounce to the current market price - which would put its value at close to USD 900 billion. This could seed a massive fund for national priorities and impact long interest rates among other impacts. The Fed itself recently issued a paper on doing the same, essentially providing a roadmap for revaluing US gold reserves to create liquidity/funds and without selling the underlying assets.

Downtime link for the weekend: boost your brain and take a sound bath. FT article (Sorry, paywall) discussing Why Beethoven is good for your brain. The article quotes noted author and neurologist Oliver Sacks in claiming that an anatomist can easily differentiate the brain of a professional musician from all other brain types. His book Musicophilia is now on my reading list after reading this article. That reminded me of a recent Conan O’Brien Needs a Friend podcast episode with a “sonic shaman” Koko T. Bear. It all sounds absurd until you start to listen the example “soundbath” the guy makes. Definitely something I will be pursuing for downtime in the future - sans the distracting podcasters comments, of course. BTW, a couple of my favorite piano pieces are Scriabin’s Etude, opus 8 # 12. I first heard Horowitz’s standard-setting version - the dynamic shifts from almost destroying the piano with his endless power to sudden pianissimo are amazing. I was blown away when looking for these clips on YouTube to discover that there is an incredible recording of Scriabin himself playing the Etude: pre-1915 as that was the year he died!. That insanely talented composer had an interesting brain for sure, as he experienced visual phenomena whenever he heard music, a case of synesthesia. BTW - a more up-to-date version for better audio is the one of teenager Yevgeny Kissin, no slouch himself.

Chart of the Day - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

With perfect hindsight, this one should have been a slam dunk for at least a quarter - the viral advertising campaign and MAGA adopting the model/actor as one of their own due to her registration as a Republican (she never explicitly was out voicing support of Trump/Republican polities) likely drove a better than expected results, even if sales did slip slightly. As with Macy’s profiled yesterday, it doesn’t take much of a beat to juice the share price when expectations are low.

Source: Saxo

Questions and comments, please!

We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].
This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex
Open Interest Monitor - 2 September 2025

Posted on: Sep 03 2025

Open Interest Monitor – 2 September 2025

Data through market close 1 September 2025

What is the Open Interest Monitor?

The Open Interest Monitor tracks which options have the highest total open interest across stocks, ETFs, and indices. It helps highlight where liquidity is deepest, where institutional activity may be concentrated, and which themes are drawing the most attention in the options market. Whether you're looking for trading ideas, better execution, or insights into market sentiment, open interest offers a valuable lens.

Note: This edition covers options on US-listed underlyings only. 

Top 20 open interest leaders (as of 1 September 2025)

Rank Ticker Name Last IV Rank (%) Total OI 1M OI % Chg Options Vol P/C Vol
1 NVDA Nvidia Corp 169.35 7.1% 20.4M 15.0% 4.8M 0.57
2 SPY S&P 500 SPDR 637.94 7.0% 18.3M 14.6% 7.9M 1.03
3 IWM Russell 2000 Ishares ETF 231.75 7.3% 12.1M 1.7% 1.0M 1.55
4 QQQ Nasdaq QQQ Invesco ETF 562.05 8.8% 9.5M 38.2% 4.5M 1.06
5 HYG High Yield Corp Bond Ishares Iboxx $ ETF 80.22 7.1% 8.5M 5.3% 304.3K 1.34
6 TSLA Tesla Inc 325.96 2.5% 8.0M 24.0% 3.3M 0.66
7 EEM Emrg Mkts Ishares MSCI ETF 49.40 7.2% 7.0M 32.5% 130.7K 1.22
8 INTC Intel Corp 23.66 8.6% 6.6M 22.1% 434.4K 0.38
9 TLT 20+ Year Treas Bond Ishares ETF 85.32 5.7% 5.8M 31.9% 559.7K 0.45
10 VIX CBOE Volatility Index 16.20 8.4% 5.3M 10.2% 1.1M 0.54
11 AAPL Apple Inc 232.17 3.2% 4.9M 27.0% 2.5M 0.65
12 MSFT Microsoft Corp 390.52 4.1% 4.6M 9.4% 1.7M 0.74
13 META Meta Platforms Inc 504.12 3.5% 4.3M 12.6% 1.1M 0.58
14 AMZN Amazon.com Inc 196.43 3.8% 3.9M 16.4% 1.5M 0.61
15 BAC Bank of America Corp 33.81 6.7% 3.8M 21.5% 482.2K 0.47
16 XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR 40.22 6.1% 3.5M 18.3% 368.1K 0.56
17 JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co 193.77 5.9% 3.3M 12.8% 298.5K 0.63
18 AMD Advanced Micro Devices 127.24 4.5% 3.1M 19.7% 612.0K 0.70
19 GOOGL Alphabet Inc A 176.28 3.6% 2.9M 14.3% 494.7K 0.69
20 NFLX Netflix Inc 671.42 4.2% 2.7M 10.5% 210.6K 0.62

This table shows the 20 listed options with the highest total open interest, combining calls and puts. Open interest data reflects active outstanding contracts and offers insights into market liquidity, sentiment, and positioning.

What the columns mean (short version):

Last = Last traded price of the underlying IV Rank = Implied volatility rank (0–100 scale) Total OI = Combined open interest for puts and calls 1M OI % Chg = Change in total open interest over the past month Options Vol = Daily trading volume in options P/C Vol = Put/Call volume ratio (based on daily volume)

For more detail, see the full glossary at the bottom of this article.

What traders can take away

The strongest build-up in new positions over the past month came in QQQ, EEM, TLT, AAPL and TSLA. This shows investors are not only focused on big technology, but also on emerging markets and bonds. TLT’s jump points to attention on interest rates, while EEM shows more global appetite beyond the US.

Volatility is low across almost all of the top names. Even the highest IV ranks are under 10%, meaning option prices are cheap compared to the past year. For buyers, this can be an opportunity to get exposure at lower cost. For sellers, it means less premium to collect. The low-volatility environment helps keep markets calm, but also leaves little buffer if surprises occur.

Put/call ratios reveal where investors are defensive. Small caps (IWM) and high-yield bonds (HYG) have more puts than calls, suggesting portfolio protection is being built there. In contrast, SPY looks balanced and single stocks like NVDA and AMZN lean more to calls. Volume remains deepest in SPY, NVDA and QQQ, confirming where liquidity and institutional focus sit.

Overall, open interest is both concentrated and broad. ETFs dominate the leaderboard, showing preference for index-level exposure, but large tech names keep drawing focused attention.

A few observations

The most striking feature is how low implied volatility is across the board. Option markets are pricing calm conditions, with little sign of fear. That can last for a while, but it also means any shock could feel sharper.

Defensive hedging is visible in small caps and credit ETFs, even while large tech flows look constructive. Rates-related ETFs like TLT and HYG stand out, showing traders are attentive to both bond yields and credit spreads.

Beyond megacap tech, flows into EEM and financial ETFs like XLF and banks (BAC, JPM) show interest in diversifying trades. Still, the semiconductor complex (NVDA, INTC, AMD) remains central.

Finally, it is worth noting that some of the open interest changes can be due to rolling positions from one expiry to another. This can increase OI without necessarily changing investor direction.

Conclusion

Options positioning remains concentrated in indices, large tech, and bond ETFs. Nvidia leads in absolute open interest, while QQQ, EEM and TLT saw the fastest growth. Low volatility across the board sets the tone: markets are calm, options are cheap, but risks can surface quickly. Defensive hedging in small caps and credit contrasts with ongoing enthusiasm for tech and index exposure.

Glossary

  • Ticker: the exchange-listed symbol for the underlying stock, ETF, or index. Indices are noted with a $ prefix in general use, but we map them to specific exchange codes in the ticker string.

  • Name: the company or ETF name associated with the ticker. ETFs typically describe their focus, such as “S&P 500” or “20+ Year Treasury Bonds.”

  • Last: The last traded price of the underlying asset (stock, ETF, or index). This gives a reference point for where the asset currently trades and helps identify how close it is to key strike levels in the option chain.

  • IV Rank (%): Implied Volatility Rank (IV Rank) shows where current implied volatility sits relative to the past 12 months. A reading of 0% means IV is at its lowest point of the year; 100% means it's at the highest. Higher IV Rank suggests options are more expensive compared to recent history, which may favour premium-selling strategies.

  • Total Open Interest (Total OI): This is the total number of open option contracts across both calls and puts for the underlying. It represents outstanding positions that have not yet been closed or exercised. High OI is often associated with deep liquidity and significant institutional interest.

  • 1M OI % Change: Shows how much total open interest has changed over the past month. A rising figure can point to fresh positioning or increased speculation, while a falling number may indicate closed-out trades or reduced interest in the underlying.

  • Options Volume: The number of option contracts traded during the most recent session. High volume relative to open interest may suggest new trades are being initiated. Sudden spikes often coincide with market-moving news or upcoming events.

  • Put/Call Volume Ratio (P/C Vol): This ratio compares the volume of puts traded to calls on the same day. A ratio above 1.0 implies more puts were traded (often for downside protection), while a value below 1.0 shows call-heavy flow (often speculative or bullish). Extreme readings can highlight skewed sentiment or potential contrarian signals.

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Options are complex, high-risk products and require knowledge, investment experience and, in many applications, high risk acceptance. We recommend that before you invest in options, you inform yourself well about the operation and risks. In Saxo Bank's Terms of Use you will find more information on this in the Important Information Options, Futures, Margin and Deficit Procedure. You can also consult the Essential Information Document of the option you want to invest in on Saxo Bank's website.
This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
Koen HoorelbekeInvestment and Options StrategistSaxo Bank
Topics: Options Equity Options Thought Starters Contract Options Options What are your options ESMA Products NOT Mentioned Theme - Crypto and blockchain