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JP 225 forecast: the index has formed an upward channel and targets a new all-time high

Posted on: Aug 15 2025

The JP 225 stock index hit a new all-time high and continued its upward trajectory. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: Japan’s current account for July totalled 1.348 trillion JPY
  • Market impact: overall reaction for the broad equity market is neutral to restrained

JP 225 fundamental analysis

While the current account remains in surplus, it is significantly lower than both the consensus and the previous reading. The decline signals less favourable external conditions and higher import costs, which may limit corporate profit margins. At the same time, a likely soft yen partially offsets the effect by supporting exporters. As a result, the balance of factors for the index is mixed: there may be heightened sensitivity to news about global demand and energy prices.

For the JP 225, this means a mixed backdrop: export-oriented industries benefit from a weaker yen in the short term, while energy-intensive and import-dependent segments face shrinking margins. The index’s further trajectory will depend on global trade trends, energy price dynamics, yen movements, and the Bank of Japan’s assessment of the balance between policy normalisation and support for economic growth.

Japan Current Account: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/current-account

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index has reached a new all-time high and remains in a strong uptrend. The support level lies at 40,315.0, with resistance at 43,385.0. There are currently no signals suggesting a reversal of the current trend. Consequently, the index is likely to reach a new all-time high again in the near term.

The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout below the 40,315.0 support level could send the index down to 38,215.0
  • Optimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout above the 43,385.0 resistance level could drive the index to 44,215.0
JP 225 technical analysis for 14 August 2025

Summary

The current account surplus remains, but it came in significantly below expectations and prior levels. This indicates less stable external support for the economy as import costs remain high, while export and income components are under pressure from global conditions.

The JP 225 index has formed an upward channel within a rising trend, with the next upside target at 44,215.0.

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US 30 forecast: the index has shifted to a downtrend

Posted on: Aug 14 2025

The US 30 stock index has turned unstable again and broken below the support level, signalling a shift to a downtrend. The US 30 forecast for today is negative.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: the US CPI came in at 2.7% year-on-year in July
  • Market impact: current data is largely positive for equity market participants

US 30 fundamental analysis

The CPI came in at 2.7% y/y, 0.1 percentage point below expectations of 2.8% and in line with the previous month, which the market sees as a moderately dovish signal: broad-based price pressure is not increasing. However, core CPI accelerated to 3.1% y/y, above the forecast of 3.0% and the previous reading of 2.9% – a hawkish signal. Such figures typically do not give the market a clear direction. The scenario of an immediate rate cut looks less likely, as the Fed will probably wait for a decline in core inflation (especially in services) before lowering the key rate.

For the US 30 index, where industrials, materials, consumer companies, and financial institutions make up a significant share, the balance of factors leans towards caution. A strong US dollar and expensive capital traditionally hurt export revenues and investment appetite in capital-intensive industries, putting pressure on industrials and material producers.

US Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index is in a downtrend. The resistance level has formed at 45,065.0, with the support level at 43,305.0. Volatility remains elevated for the US 30, and no clear short-term trend has yet been established.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 43,305.0 support level could send the index down to 42,205.0
  • Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 45,065.0 resistance level could boost the index up to 45,725.0
US 30 technical analysis for 13 August 2025

Summary

For the US 30 index, the inflation data described does not provide a clear directional trend but increases the likelihood of sideways movement. The next downside target could be 42,205.0. The further trend will be shaped by labour market data and government bond yield dynamics. Another round of the US-China trade war cannot be ruled out.

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China July PPI falls 3.6%, CPI flat: Weak demand, housing slump keep deflation fears alive

Posted on: Aug 11 2025

China’s factory-gate prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices were flat, signalling that weak domestic demand and trade uncertainty continue to weigh on the economy.

The data was published over the weekend, ICYMI:

  • China July data - China’s consumer price inflation flat y/y, but higher than expected m/m

Consumer prices were unchanged from a year earlier, versus June’s 0.1% rise and beating expectations for a 0.1% decline. Core CPI rose 0.8% y/y, the highest in 17 months, driven by non-food items, while food prices fell 1.6%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.4%, reversing June’s 0.1% drop.

The producer price index (PPI) dropped 3.6% y/y — matching June’s near two-year low and missing forecasts for a smaller 3.3% decline. It was the 25th consecutive month of PPI contraction, reflecting ongoing price competition and overcapacity in key industries. On a monthly basis, PPI fell 0.2%, an improvement from June’s 0.4% drop. Authorities have launched measures to curb “disorderly competition” in sectors like autos, which some analysts expect could start lifting PPI from August.

Extreme weather — heatwaves along the eastern seaboard and heavy rains in other regions — added to economic pressures. While some see signs that deflationary pressures may be easing, others caution that without stronger demand-side stimulus, recovery may be limited. A prolonged housing slump, fragile US trade ties, and a weak labour market remain key headwinds.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Figma and the 6 other biggest IPOs of 2025

Posted on: Aug 09 2025

Key points:

 
  • 2025’s IPO boom has delivered huge wins for names like Figma, CoreWeave, and Circle, while others, such as Venture Global, have stumbled.
  • High-growth sectors offer big potential but come with risks from volatility, lofty valuations, and unproven models.
  • Disciplined investing—focusing on fundamentals, valuations, and timing—is key to separating winners from losers.

Last week, design software giant Figma made headlines with one of the most explosive IPOs of this year. The American software company raised over $1.2 billion on the NYSE stock exchange, achieving a market capitalization of more than $56 billion, making it the largest IPO of the year so far. But it’s not alone. From AI disruptors to crypto innovators, 2025 is shaping up to be a blockbuster year for companies going public.

On Thursday, August 7th, Firefly Aerospace - the first commercial rocket-maker to successfully land on the moon earlier this year - launched its own IPO. The offering was 25 times oversubscribed, setting a record as the largest space industry IPO in US history. On the first day of trading, shares ended 35% higher than the initial offering price.

After several years of rising interest rates and soaring inflation that kept investors wary of riskier bets, 2025 is signalling a dramatic resurgence in market appetite for bold, high-growth ventures.  It's time for an overview of the most significant new names of 2025.

What is an IPO?

IPO (Initial Public Offering) is the first time a company issues shares on the stock market.  For investors, it’s a chance to get in early – sometimes before the rest of the market catches up. But IPOs can be volatile. Some stocks soar, others stumble. That’s why it’s crucial to understand the story behind the numbers.

Why are IPOs interesting for investors?

Beyond the headlines and opening-day hype, IPOs can offer unique opportunities that established stocks often can’t match. They can provide early access to fast-growing companies, exposure to new sectors, and the chance to capture strong initial momentum - if you know what to look for.

  • Potential for “day-one pop” and momentum trading. IPOs can deliver strong initial returns due to pent-up demand, limited float, and media buzz - creating short-term investment opportunities.
  • Exposure to high-growth themes and emerging sectors. IPOs often provide access to companies riding transformative trends like AI, fintech, clean energy, and crypto - before they’re widely held.
  • “Getting in early”. Investors are drawn to the idea of backing the next breakout success story, especially when structural tailwinds support long-term growth.
  • Diversification. IPOs can introduce new business models or geographies not represented in existing public markets, enhancing diversification.

Largest IPOs in 2025 so far

Unsurprisingly, the biggest IPOs this year occurred in the US. It has been an active year, with 201 IPOs so far, surpassing last year's total of 112. By comparison, Euronext had 40 IPOs, and China has seen 101 new public listings on its mainland exchanges.

Here are the largest IPOs of 2025 (as of August 1, 2025):

7. Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: SFD)

  • Market Cap: $9.5 billion
  • IPO Price: $20 Smithfield Foods, the Virginia-based world’s largest pork producer and owned by a Chinese parent company, is up over 20% since its IPO. The company offers investors a global food play, with performance closely tied to commodity cycles, geopolitical risks, and regulatory shifts.

6. SailPoint (NASDAQ: SAIL)

  • Market Cap: $12.4 billion
  • IPO Price: $22 SailPoint, a key player in identity management and security, went public on Nasdaq in February. After an April dip, the stock recovered, offering investors a defensive play with potential upside tied to recurring revenues and enterprise adoption.

5. Chime Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: CHYM)

  • Market Cap: $12.5 billion
  • IPO Price: $27 Chime is a fintech company offering mobile banking, particularly popular among younger users. It debuted at $27 per share in June, reaching nearly $45 before settling around $34.40, still up 27% above its IPO price, offering investors growth potential with lingering questions around monetization and user retention.  

4. Venture Global (NYSE: VG)

  • Market Cap: $25 billion
  • IPO Price: $25 Venture Global, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) specialist with a $25 billion market cap, is the only stock in this cohort trading significantly below IPO, offering exposure to energy security trends amid volatile geopolitical and climate-driven price swings.

3. Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL)

  • Market Cap: $40.8 billion
  • IPO Price: $31 Circle, a payment technology company managing stablecoins EURC and USDC, skyrocketed from an IPO price of $31 to $183, marking a stellar performance since its listing, but regulatory risks are key to watch in this space.

2. CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV)

  • Market Cap: $55.7 billion
  • IPO Price: $40 CoreWeave, a former crypto miner turned AI cloud powerhouse leasing infrastructure to giants like Microsoft, rebounded 185% post-IPO, tapping into the booming demand for AI computing despite fierce sector competition.

1. Figma (NYSE: FIG)

  • Market Cap: $56 billion
  • IPO Price: $33

Figma’s collaborative design platform is beloved by tech teams worldwide. The company’s shares have tripled post-IPO, cementing its spot as the year’s biggest U.S. tech debut - but lofty valuations may test investor nerves.

The table below highlights key return metrics—including IPO price, first-day, first-week, and first-month performance along with total return since listing (as of 7th of August 2025).

Risk to watch

Even though IPOs can be exciting and deliver outsized returns, they also come with unique pitfalls that investors should recognise before committing significant capital. From wild early price swings to inflated valuations and untested business models, knowing the red flags can help you separate promising newcomers from costly disappointments.

  • Hype vs. fundamentals. Media buzz and oversubscription can inflate expectations and generate high volatility for the shares. Focus on the company’s financial health and ability to execute, and keep in mind that early sell-side analysis tends to be more promotional than objective.
  • Execution risk. Many IPOs involve young companies with unproven business models or volatile earnings and limited historical performance data - making accurate valuation more challenging.
  • Valuation compression post-IPO. Many IPOs trade down after initial excitement fades. Be cautious of inflated debut pricing which might lead to long-run under-performance.
  • Allocation lottery. Many investors don’t get meaningful opening-price fills.

Upcoming IPOs to watch

Several notable IPOs are still expected this year. Payment provider Stripe could have one of the largest IPOs ever. Chinese fashion giant Shein seeks a London listing, while companies like Klarna and Discord also hint at public ambitions. None have yet announced specific dates.

Practical tips for investors

  • Consider waiting until the first earnings call for clearer fundamentals.
  • Compare valuation multiples to mature peers, not just to other hot IPOs.
  • Look beyond the headlines, evaluate the company’s IPO rationale and capital deployment strategy.

IPOs can open the door to some of the market’s most dynamic companies, but success requires more than chasing headlines. By balancing excitement with discipline—evaluating fundamentals, timing, and risk—you can position yourself to capture the upside while avoiding costly missteps. In the fast-moving world of new listings, preparation is your best edge. Stay tuned for updates!

Note: In this article, we highlight the largest IPOs of 2025 by current market cap and not by capital raised. Performance metrics reflect publicly available pricing and return data is calculated based on closing prices, from listing through the stated periods. All data issued from Bloomberg as of 7 August 2025.

In this article, we highlight the largest IPOs of 2025 by current market cap and not by capital raised. Performance metrics reflect publicly available pricing and return data is calculated based on closing prices, from listing through the stated periods. All data issued from Bloomberg as of 1stof August 2025.   This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Adam Reynolds
Investment Strategist
Saxo Bank
Topics: Equities Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke Initial Public Offering (IPO)
Most dangerous market of all time? Note: with links and charts!

Posted on: Jul 31 2025

Besides overall bubble vibe, we are picking up some warnings light here as well. Next week plus is key.

Listen to the full episode now or follow Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app:

The links mentioned on today’s SMC pod:
  • Le Shrub on “Quant-Monkey-Geddon” - always entertaining and worth a follow on X / Substack etc. Has also been a podcast guest where I first came across him.
  • Le Shrub also tipped me off with link to X post looking the Goldman Sachs Long/Short Index and how poorly the Long/Short outfits have been performing over last two months (a sign that “something wrong here”.
  • Jesse Felder discussing how loose financial conditions really are with some great chart pulls at the most recent Felder Report:
  • Jesse Felder again on the record low insider buying interest.
  • Endgame Macro with a rundown of the US geopolitical strategic game plan. How will China respond to this

Today’s chart of the day: Meta

Meta earnings after the close will be an interesting one. A bit surprising that the IV rank only at 30%, with an “expected move” through Friday of about 5.4% as of Barchart’s snapshot. Yesterday saw an ugly sell-off bar to the round 700 level (options-linked?). As noted on the pod today, interesting to see how the market treats the stock if Zuckerberg continues further ups the capex plans on AI data centers and not least, salaries for top talent in the field. I have no insight here on what Meta will deliver - just asking questions.

 
Source: Saxo

Questions and comments, please!

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This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex